The huge travesty that is the Greater Nicobar Project is back in the news cycle because of the visit there by Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi who assailed the Project terming it a scam and a ‘crime against natural and tribal heritage.’ The Union government of course refuted this with familiar tropes emphasizing development and the always handy ‘strategic, defence and national importance,’ argument.  Hopefully the headlines will not just be momentary but herald a revitalized public campaign against this Project which will most likely leave a trail of ecological destruction. 

The Project    

The main components of the Project, currently estimated to cost around Rs.81,000 crore or up to Rs.1 lakh crore per some sources, are a transshipment port in Galathea Bay on Great Nicobar island aimed at catering to the major East-West cargo shipping route linking to the Malacca Strait; a new township to host about 3.5 lakh persons as against the current population of about 8,000; a greenfield international airport with capacity up to 10 million passengers per year; several other elements are being added on such as ship-building and repair facilities and tourism infrastructure.  

The GNI Project started off as the flagship component of an Island Development Programme initially conceived in 2019 by Niti Aayog, mainly as a set of eco-tourism projects on 5 islands each in the Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar island chains on either flank of the Indian peninsula. When these tourism plans did not received the desired corporate response, the transshipment port emerged at the forefront.

The total project area is 166 sq.km out of the total island area of 960 sq.km. 130 sq.km is pristine long-growth forest slated to be cleared almost completely, including areas traditionally inhabited by the Nicobarese and the last surviving Shompen tribes people.

All aspects of the Project, the objections raised by critics, and the response by regulatory and judicial authorities from time to time, have all been extensively covered over the years. Of special note are the series of articles in The Hindu newspaper and in Frontline magazine, and especially the articles and books compiling expert commentaries on different aspects edited by noted science policy analyst and writer Pankaj Sekhsaria who has pursued this matter rigorously and doggedly since long. The Left Parties, and many civil society organizations including the Peoples Science Movement, have raised their voices against the project over several years. These columns too have run several articles on the issue.   

Yet, in its notorious and now familiar manner, the BJP government has doubled down on the Project, brushed aside all objections however well-founded, and pressurized all regulatory and other agencies to smoothen approvals. Along the way, it has misled the public about the Project and the damage it will cause, and has also concealed information. In February this year, the Project passed its possibly penultimate hurdle in the National Green Tribunal (NGT), which turned down all objections not on environmental considerations but on grounds of “national and strategic importance.” It now awaits a final appeal in the Calcutta High Court.

Ecological destruction                       

As brought out by extensive published material referenced here, the scale of ecological destruction is enormous, even though almost the entire island and some surrounding marine areas amounting to 1037 sq.km are recognized by UNESCO as the Nicobar Biosphere Reserve.

From the outset, the extent of deforestation required for the GNI Project has been a major concern. The project proposal estimated that 8.65 lakh trees would need to be cut in the required 130 sq.km of forest land, a figure later revised to 9.64 lakhs. Government later claimed that only half this area, or 6500 hectares of forests, would have to be cut. Scientists however are of the opinion that this figure, of about 133 trees/ha, is a gross underestimate for tropical rainforests. Based on known data from the Andaman & Nicobar Islands(A&NI), these scientists believe about 500-900 trees/ha would be a better estimate, bringing the number of trees to be cut to 32 lakh-58 lakh. If the full 13,000 ha were considered, the figure could go beyond 10 million trees!

The government continues downplaying the extent of deforestation, even trying to fool the public by repeatedly referring to the deforested area being only 1.82% of the forest area, not of the GNI, but of the A&N Islands as a whole! [Please ensure italics] Fact is, the government does not know how many trees would be felled since the tenders for the job also specify “enumeration” as one of the required tasks! Scientists have estimated that even felling the underestimated number of trees would take two decades of continuous logging, calling into question all Project timelines and costs.

To add insult to injury, the compensatory afforestation to offset this huge loss of dense tropical rainforest is being done in the arid regions of Haryana, with 97.3 sq.km identified there for the loss of 48.65 sq.km in Phase 1 of the Project. The government also states that 2.4 million trees have been planted in the A&NI under the ‘Ek ped Maa ke naam,’ or ‘One tree in Mother’s name’ Scheme! This is no compensation at all.

Endangered endemic wildlife            

The GNI area is unique even among its pristine surroundings. Scientists have highlighted many endemic species such as the Nicobar megapode bird, a majority of whose secretive nests will be destroyed as acknowledged even in the environmental clearance given. Other birds listed by IUCN as vulnerable or endangered include the serpent eagle along with other rare birds of prey and the Scops Owl. Several reptile species are in danger, notably the saltwater crocodile, among the largest in the world, whose main wetland habitat is to be built over for the airport.  Badly impacted mammals include the tree shrew, the long-tailed macaque and a local wild boar.

Undoubtedly the most famous, and probably the species worst affected, is the Giant Leatherback Turtle, listed by IUCN as engendered or vulnerable. Its most important nesting sites in the northern Indian Ocean are precisely on the beaches along the 3km wide mouth of the Galathea river as it flows into the Ocean, exactly where the port is to be built. This Turtle has very wide range, traveling as far as Australia or Africa in migratory routes traversed for millions of years, long before humans evolved. The Galathea Bay Wildlife Sanctuary was formed in 1997 and, as late as 2021, the Ministry of Environment & Climate Change (MoEFCC) had listed Galathea Bay as among the most important marine turtle habitats in India. Ironically, around the same time, the Sanctuary was denotified by the National Board for Wildlife (NBWL), to pave the way for the Project.  

Now, as part of the environmental clearance (EC) given to the Project, so-called alternatives have been proposed such as new wildlife and turtle sanctuaries in nearby islands, and leaving a narrow channel in the Galathea river mouth. Obviously, the turtles would avoid the Bay due to the massive interference and noise caused by the ships and port operations, clearly a disaster in the making. Nesting sites that have evolved and shaped turtle instincts over millennia cannot be changed by diversion signboards and by-passes!

Limitations of space prevent discussion of other large-scale ecological damage. The island is surrounded by coral reefs which are obviously in danger. The Project’s mitigation strategy is to translocate a large proportion of these corals to neighbouring islands, a delicate process with uncertain outcomes under the best of conditions. The presence of coral reefs in most of the eastern coast fall under Coastal Regulation Zone or CRZ 1A category, itself strong reason to deny environment clearance for any developmental activity, leave alone a major port.  Species of dolphins and, whales abound in the seas around GNI. The EC also largely ignores the teeming marine life and biodiversity in the coral reefs.

The tribes                   

Prior to 1960, Great Nicobar Island was inhabited only by small populations of the Nicobarese and Shompen tribes, of which the latter is a hunter-gatherer Particularly Vulnerable Tribe (PVT).  A small community of mainly ex-servicemen was settled on GNI, with the help of the Nicobarese, around the administrative centre Campbell Bay, establishing a ‘mainland’ Indian presence. The deadly 2004 tsunami wiped out a large number of Nicobarese and Shompen, remaining groups being resettled in camps in two settlements around Campbell Bay for convenience.  However, this has uprooted these tribal peoples from their traditional coastal homelands and forests on which their sustenance and way of life established were based. Continuous efforts by the Shompen and Nicobarese, including multiple petitions to authorities demanding return to their pre-tsunami habitations have been ignored or stonewalled. Now, due to the Project, the Shompen (pop. 237) and Nicobarese (pop. 1094), stand to completely lose their lands, plantations and fishing areas, and perhaps their very existence.

The authorities have repeatedly assured “no relocation of tribal communities.” But they are already displaced in their present settlements, and will become permanently so due to the Project. None of this is legal, under any of the several protections afforded to tribal communities especially PVT, with special provisions for the A&N Islands. Their traditional lands in the formerly notified Tribal Reserve were denotified to facilitate the Project. Notification of another area will not compensate for this loss. These tribal groups also stand to lose their coconut plantations on some neighbouring islands which the authorities now propose to declare wildlife sanctuaries to make up for the destruction on GNI. A double whammy!

The familiar pattern in the GNI Project repeats here as well. The Tribal Affairs Ministry in Delhi, after initial attempts to intervene, has retreated into silence and passed the buck completely to the Home Ministry. The NGT says all issues have been addressed. It is indeed tragic that the tribes people who have “owned” these lands for millennia now find themselves totally powerless and dispossessed, and soon be overwhelmed by lakhs of settlers.  

Transshipment Port   

While much of the critique of the GNI Project has focused on the potential ecological and tribal damage, the Port itself has not received sufficient attention. The defence and national security angles are increasingly being tagged on to the Project rationale to ward off opposition, to deny information, and to suggest that even if there are some problems, the Project is essential in the national interest as the latest NGT order explicitly argued.

A transshipment port receives cargo from smaller ports, and pools them on to larger vessels to other destination ports, so as to optimize time and costs. About 75% of goods shipped to and from India transit directly to and from Indian ports, but 25% of goods are transshipped, three-fourths of this at foreign ports. Major transshipment hubs catering to India are Colombo, about 45%, Singapore, Klang in Malaysia, and some Gulf ports. India is said to lose an estimated $200 million annually in transshipment costs. Potential opportunities to earn additional revenues are also being lost due to shortage of transshipment ports in India. Vizhinjam Port in Kerala, along with upgradation at Vallarpadam Container Terminal, Kochi, both with requisite depth of up to 20 metres, are the new entrants trying to close the gap. The GNI Project is being projected as the third, and important, transshipment port that could cater to shipping to and from East and South East Asia en route the Malacca Strait.

However, no detailed feasibility study or likely returns are available. In fact, earlier studies including by the same consulting firm which now supports the opposite scenario, had argued that the Port on an isolated island with no hinterland industrial or commercial demand had little chance of success. Huge investments and large-scale ecological and human costs resting only on hope is a high risk.

The add-on justifications of national security and strategic considerations are equally fanciful. Government argues that proximity of the Project to the Malacca Strait provides an opportunity to counter growing Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean region through its “string of pearls” strategy, a theory echoed even by the NGT in support of its greenlighting the Project. Exerting influence over the Malacca Strait choke point is also projected, although alternative routes are available.  It is highly doubtful if the proposed Port, which is dwarfed by the massive port infrastructure in Singapore, Malaysia and ports further afield, would have the clout to disrupt extant cargo shipping traffic.

As for defence, that is a different argument altogether. India already has considerable military presence and force projection capability in the A&N Islands, including in GNI itself. A small military apron in an otherwise large international civilian airport will not make a big difference. If required, additional military facilities could easily be added in the Nicobar islands using significantly less area and at considerably less cost, as shown by INS Baaz in Great Nicobar in just about 50 hectares. Admiral Arun Prakash, former Navy chief, has strongly argued that strategic and defence interests should be discussed separately, and can indeed be addressed in the A&N Islands, including to the north of GNI, without sacrificing precious ecosystems.  

Regrettably, “defence,” “security,” and “national interests” are being invoked by all government, regulatory and judicial authorities to deny relevant information including on environmental issues, deforestation, tribal rights and so on. With all this, the next step will clearly be, as is already slowly happening, branding all critics of the Project as anti-national. What a tragedy.