ECONOMIC NOTES

The US Debt Ceiling Debate

UNDER pressure from globalised finance capital, most countries of the world have enacted legislation fixing the size of the fiscal deficit as a proportion of GDP; generally it is 3 per cent, and in India it is 3 per cent for the centre and 3 per cent for the states. The US however has no such legislation; instead what it has is a ceiling on the absolute stock of public debt that can be held at any point of time.

Public Opinion and Imperialism

A New York Times News Service report reproduced in The Telegraph of Kolkata (May 7), discusses the findings of a global public opinion survey carried out by the Bennett Institute of Public Policy of Cambridge University. These show that the Ukraine conflict had shifted public sentiment “in developed democracies in East Asia and Europe as well as the United States of America, uniting their citizens against both Russia and China and shifting mass opinion in a more pro-American direction”; by contrast “outside this democratic bloc, the trends were very different”.

The Grim Unemployment Scenario

THE data on unemployment brough out by the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMIE) present a grim picture. Not only has the unemployment rate increased sharply for some years now, starting from even before the pandemic, but the figure which had shot up during the pandemic has not come down much despite the recovery that has occurred in the level of GDP from its trough.The unemployment rate which was 4.7 per cent in 2017-18, rose to 6.3 per cent in 2018-19. It shot up during the lockdown associated with the pandemic: in December 2020 for instance, it was 9.1 per cent.

Threats to the Hegemony of the Dollar

JANET Yellen, the US treasury secretary, has finally acknowledged what has been obvious to most people for quite some time, namely that the imposition of sanctions against countries that the US is hostile to, runs the risk of jeopardising the hegemony of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. If the sanctions were imposed on just one or two countries, then matters would be different; but sanctions these days are used by the US to target dozens of countries, and, when this happens, those countries tend to get together to form alternative arrangements for bypassing such sanctions.

OPEC+ and Capitalism’s Fight against Inflation

Except in war-time, capitalism invariably seeks to control inflation by creating a recession; and this is so even when the inflation has been caused by an autonomous increase in capitalists’ profit-margins which are downward inflexible and hence would not be reduced by a recession. This strategy is pursued because a recession invariably lowers the demand for primary commodities and hence their prices; this serves to lower inflation.

The Collapse of US Banks

THERE is nothing mysterious about the reasons for the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank and the Signature Bank in the United States. There is also nothing mysterious about why the entire banking system of the capitalist world has come under a cloud: once some part of the system collapses, the other parts of it get saddled with “toxic” assets, which are nothing else but the liabilities of the collapsed part of the system, and hence become subject to a “domino effect”. The real issue is: how did US capitalism get into a situation where its banking system came under such severe strain?

The “Hindu Rate of Growth”: Then and Now

FOR a large part of the dirigiste period, the gross domestic product of the Indian economy grew at a rate of around 4 per cent per annum or less, which, though an improvement compared to the colonial era that had witnessed virtual stagnation, was not very impressive. This low steady growth over a prolonged period of time was facetiously referred to as the “Hindu rate of growth” by many economists (perhaps because with this rate an eternity would be required for any noticeable social transformation).

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